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The Program's Picks

October 30th, 2009 by The Juice · No Comments

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Every week the the degenerate gamblers who run this site attempt to pick games for the upcoming college football weekend. We are usually completely and totally wrong, blinded by team allegiance, alumni status, and probably a 5th of Makers. That being the case, we’ve enlisted help of professionals…not for the Makers problem, but for the gambling one. The Geek Sheet experts have decided to set us all straight this season. They’ll be here to give you the winners, blow your mind with high level statistical analysis, and shamelessly plug their own site…which is something we have great admiration for. Be sure to check out their site for more. Now, on to the picks…

Records

The Juice: 25-14-1

Mike Medallion: 15-24-1

Bunkie Perkins: 19-20-1

The Geek: 18-21-1

Auburn +3 ½ v. Ole Miss

The Juice: Ole Miss. I’m still on the gus bus, but all four tires are flat and the tape deck isn’t even working. It isn’t unfixable, but as long as Chris Todd is behind the wheel I doubt we’ll get further than 3 yards down the road.

Mike Medallion: Ole Miss. Who are we kidding here? The only way I will get to experience a win at JHS this weekend is if I can convince Bunkie to leave by the start of the 4th Quarter. And for the love of all that is good and right with the world, please let it not rain for once before or during an Auburn home game.

Bunkie Perkins: Ole Miss. Two teams headed in completely different directions.  Houston Nutt finally realized that if you get the ball to your best player, good things tend to happen.  Gene Chizik realized that when you put the ball in the hands of a sub par quarterback in Gus Malzahn’s offense, bad things tend to happen.  Much of the same will go on on the plains this weekend.

The Geek: Ole Miss. Until Auburn proves they’ve got a pulse on offense again, I can’t back them, and frankly in this game even with the O the 1st couple weeks would struggle vs an improving Ole Miss O, and a very good (and under-rated Ole Miss D)…math says this should be close, but given the past three weeks I don’t see how…who knows maybe Todd get’s his head, shoulder, and/or both back and they return to their “pre-season” form, or they roll out Caudle, or they remain status quo…your guess is as good as mine. Auburn  26, Ole miss 31

Georgia +15 v. Florida (in Jacksonville)

TJ: Georgia. This kind of reminds me of the UT spread. Yes UGA is down, but dayum is an SEC Rivalrly game and Florida has done little more than barely take care of business when it had to. Florida will win in similar fashion to recent weeks, but those 15 points will do the trick for the Dawgs. Maybe Tebow and Meyer should stop sleeping in on gameday?

MM: Flo-Rida. Don’t wurry ’bout them 15 pernts, Curch Urban Meyers will have the Florida Gator playing gustily.

BP: Georgia. Tebow has looked like a mere mortal the last two weeks and, in that time, Florida hasn’t come close to covering the spread.  The Gators probably find a way to win this one but it’s tight throughout.

The Geek: Georgia. Meyer has been content the last couple games to rely on an exceptional D and grind out a couple wins in games where they only way they could lose is with multiple TOs (See Miss St & Ark for what happens when the TO bug hits).  UGAs D will have a very hard time stopping UF, but my guess is Meyer keeps it close to the vest with a banged up Demps and Tebow and will be content to let his exceptional D dismantle UGA… our math doesn’t quite support that, which isn’t surprising as it hasn’t supported the actual results for UF the last couple weeks.  I have no confidence in Cox, Richt, Bobo, and Co, but given UFs game planning of late don’t see how you lay the 2 TDs…still given all the piss and vinegar associated with this game of late, and UGA’s back to the wall, my guess is they’ll give a spirited performance…my advice to everyone, stay far…far, away. Georgia 21, Florida 34 (in Jacksonville)

Texas -9 @ OK St.

TJ. Texas. They may have just found their edge on offense just at the time where Oklahoma St. is officially losing their offense for the year (Good to know ya Dez).

MM. Texas. I feel good about this pick (so that means you should pick OSU), but I fear that OSU finds some way to make this a shootout (even with out Dez). Still, I figure the ‘Horns will find a way to pull away late to cover.

BP: Texas. One big statistical game by Colt McCoy on a national broadcast and he can start writing that Heisman acceptance speech.  That big one comes this weekend.

The Geek: Texas. Too much firepower here for UT, and couldn’t fault someone for a small play here.  UT looks to get 450+ in total offense, and I suspect the key to this game will be a very good UT D that we have pretty much shutting down OSU (project just 255 yards @ 4.1 yppl).  Our model calls for a 12 point game which isn’t enough line value for us. Texas 35, OK St. 23

USC -3 ½ @ Oregon

TJ: USC. Sorry Might Ducks. Not even Goldberg could save you in this bout.

MM: USC. Oregon’s return to the top of the polls (after that opening loss (and punch) in Boise) comes to an end (well, at least until they win out the rest of their games, and then end up with having 2 losses, but both to Top 5 teams).

BP: Oregon. Phil Knight will tear the Nike emblazoned clothes from the Trojan’s bodies if they decide to ruin Oregon’s run to that ellusive Pac 10 title.  The Ducks get it done in Outzen.

 The Geek: USC. I’d really like to pull the trigger for the home team and call for the straight up win (50% of our models call for a 24-24 game), however, the average score is overweighted by some big USC wins, and my sense is they’ll be out for blood here…I’ll side with Mr. Carroll in a game he knows he needs to win, and win convincingly. USC 28, Oregon 23

BONUS PICKS

Ga. Tech (-12) @ Vanderbilt

TJ: Ga. Tech. This is another give me spread for Tech. Sirs Vandy is not good. Tech may end the year with just one loss.

Cincinnati (-15.5) @ Syracuse

MM. Cincinnati. A really good team vs. a really bad team. The really good team wins this by at least 20.

Virgina -7 vs. Duke

BP: Virginia. Al Groh gets locked inside his house by Virginia fans.  Unable to escape, he is also unable to coach his team.  Thus UVA wins in a walk.

Missouri 31 (-4) @ Colorado 18

The Geek: Missouri. This is one of our recommended plays for the week.  We were just 3-5 on our recommended plays last week and now 24-24-1 this season with a lifetime record (5 years) of 63% (239-142-8), including 68% (52-24-1) last year!    We are finalizing our card for this week but it looks like we’ll have 7 recommended plays on Saturday (including Missouri).  To see our analysis of the Missouri game, click here.  We usually have 3-5 games a week we take a very hard look at but decided to pass on.  You can sign up to receive these plays free of charge by visiting our website, www.thegeeksheetsports.com.

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